cess which has been in progress for the past 15
years. This process, however, should not be perceived as the elementary
replacement of the "factory chimney with the computer", as some philosophers
believe. The old industrial sectors (metallurgy, chemicals, machine tool
engineering, energy production, transport) will be partially reconstructed,
partially relocated to the lesser developed countries for the sake of
cheaper labour and the lack of environmental pressure groups and opposition.
One only has to look to see what is happening with the automobile industry,
machine tool production, electronics and the electronics industry and
chemical production. Everything now involves new high technology and
computers. In modern automobile construction as much money is now spent on
new electronics as on improvements to engine design. The new generation of
aeroplanes, "Boeing" and "Airbus" are practically operated from the ground
taking off and landing using electronic equipment, while the pilots fulfil
mainly regulatory functions. The chemical industry is re-orienting itself to
new, environmentally clean technology and hitherto unknown products. The
construction industry is investing more and more in new highly resistant
materials. Just as in the 19th and 20th century the industrial revolution
lead to revolutions in agriculture without replacing it, the new technology
of the New Civilisation will revolutionise industrial technology and will
change their essence but will not destroy it. Development does not allow for
absolute rejection. Revolution itself always means the addition of the new
to the old and its transformation. It has been interpreted in other ways in
history, but that was just destruction.
The second very important area in the restructuring of the world
economy, in my opinion, is the huge process of the geographical
re-distribution of world production. Today, the citizens, trade unions and
politicians in Bavaria and California are concerned about the re-location of
manufacturing facilities to the countries of South East Asia and Latin
America. Millions of people are suffering as a result of the reduction in
military production, as is the case in California. This fact cannot be
ignored, but this is only the beginning. The modern geographical
distribution of world production was formed at a time of colonial power and
consolidated during the bi-polar world. Given the new world conditions of
the Fourth Civilisation, things will have to change out of all recognition.
As paradoxical as it may sound even the direction of investments will have
to change. Amongst the favourites are the countries of South East Asia. The
export of manufacturing potential from North America and Europe will expand.
This will consist mainly of those products which can be easily adapted to
the new technologies and the constant increase in the cost of labour in the
industrialised countries. Finally, the advent of the New Civilisation will
be accompanied by the closure of a number of manufacturing processes. This
process will be more intense than at any other time during the whole of the
20th century.
Whether we live in New York, Tokyo, Belgrade or Dakkar we are living in
a state of transition between two civilisations. This is a technological
transition, a transition in the nature of economic development. New
manufacturing sectors and products will come to the fore. The distinct
division between intellectual and physical labour and the manufacturing and
non-manufacturing sector will disappear. This is indisputable and supported
not only by P.Drucker but also by the chairman of the majority in the US
Congress N.Greenwich.
The state of change is indeed similar to that which existed at the end
of the 18th century and the beginning of the 19th. Let us hope that the
consequences for the people of the world will not be as dramatic as they
were then. During the processes of industrialisation millions of people were
thrown out onto the streets or transformed into factory slaves. The
developed societies were divided into classes causing huge social unrest.
Today the experience of the past and the bitter lessons of the 20th century
provide us with the hope that the great changes in technological and
economic growth will not inevitably lead to chaos and social strife.
3. WHO WILL DOMINATE THE WORLD ECONOMY
Recently, everyone has been trying to convince us that the three
economic centres -- the USA, Japan and Europe dominate the world and that
the technological and financial power of Japan will replace the economic
power of the East. I do not believe in these prospects...
D
uring the Third Civilisation the power of countries was determined by
their military and political power. This was based on economic strength but
was not always the most decisive element in the consolidation of power of
one country over another. The Ottoman Empire was not more advanced
materially when between the 13--16th centuries it conquered one third of
Europe as far north as Vienna. France under Napoleon the 1st was no stronger
economically than the rest of the countries in Europe but managed to conquer
with better military organisation and leadership.
The Fourth Civilisation precludes the military resolution of conflicts.
The achievement of nuclear parity and the nature of nuclear weapons makes it
absurd to wage nuclear war. This is also true conventional conflicts as
well. Let us take the example of the war in Bosnia. There have been over
200,000 deaths (perhaps many more), the complete destruction of industry and
infrastructure, valleys of blood and violence. The war ended with the
signing of the peace accord in Dayton, USA which brought the sides back to
their starting points. The reason for such absurdities is the potential
possibility of the mutual neutralisation of the nuclear powers and their
influence on the smaller warring countries.
I begin this chapter in this way since in the 1960's and 1970's when
nuclear parity was achieved a "new concept" of world economic domination was
born. There are still people in a number of countries who believe that the
USA or Japan can play the role of a world economic super power. In the 20th
century many countries have aspired to such a role but all of them lost in
the long run. I believe that today on the basis of the laws of human
development the imposition of economic domination by one country or a group
of countries over the rest can only be a temporary state. In the context of
globalisation the economic levels of the countries of the world have begun
to level out. This process can only be stopped by political coercion or the
isolation of countries from each other. In the civilisations which have
existed up until now, nations began their development in different climatic
conditions and with different resources. In the 19th and 20th centuries
these same nations began to realise how wide was the gap had grown between
them.
During the last 50 years a series of processes began to take place
within the heart of the bi-polar model which proved that economic domination
from an historical point of view is purely illusory. Let us take as an
example the most powerful institutions of the world economy, the
trans-national corporations. Immediately after the Second World War the
American corporations were the undisputed dominating forces of the world
economy and only a group of British companies managed to upset their
hegemony. In 1962 of the 500 largest companies in the world, 300 (with a
total product of 365 billion dollars) were in the USA and 200 (with a total
product of 174 billion USD) in other countries. Today this picture has
changed beyond recognition. In 1992, of the 50 largest industrial companies
in the world, only 14 were in the USA, 13 in Japan, 2 in the U.K., 7 in
Germany, 3 in Italy, 5 in France, 2 in South Korea etc.. This trend will
continue. We can expect a serious increase in trans-national companies from
Germany, Russia, South Korea, Brazil and also a number of smaller countries.
The process of levelling will take place slowly. This is the inevitable
result of the opening and expansion of the world market. In contrast to 40
or 50 years ago, today investments, manufacturing processes and goods are
being exported everywhere it is economically viable to do so. At the
beginning of the new technological revolution in the 1970's and 1980's
investments were directed at the most developed nations which had educated
and well-trained personnel. I believe that since the 1990's a significant
part of the world investments will be redirected mainly to some of the new
"dragons" of South East Asia, Australia, China, Latin America and, given
greater political stability, Eastern Europe.
Similar changes are taking place in the commodity and stock markets.
Only a few years ago the stock exchanges in New York and London were
dominant. Today the Tokyo stock exchange has changed all that and is now
quite convincingly the leading stock market in the world. There has been a
gradual, almost invisible process whereby the new financial markets have
developed. This will lead to the re-distribution of the economic power and
new hitherto unseen trends.
Until the end of the 1980's and in particular during the period of the
Cold War, the major criterion for political and economic power was still
closely associated with the military and armaments industry. If the positive
trends of world development continue economic power will depend more on
technology, information and resources and will guarantee the future of
promising industrial sectors. This will lead to the re-determination of the
power and wealth of the countries and nations of the world and their place
in the global division of labour. The new technologies will not permit
monopolisation. They will guarantee advantages for the countries which
possess them only until they are mastered by other countries. High
technology in the modern world is being spread via the trans-national
corporations and the activities of governments.
Japan, despite its world domination in the development and production
of new technology is also a major exporter of high-tech products and
know-how. In South East Asia and Latin America there are number of
production facilities with the most modern telecommunications technology.
Competition between the trans-national corporations is the main reason for
this. I believe that this is in principle impossible for technology and
information to be monopolised in the aims of the domination of certain
countries over others especially in the context of the modern scientific and
technological revolution. The New Civilisation will still maintain the trend
of the free movement of technology and information.
The direct result of this is the formation over the past 30--40 years
of a new global distribution of manufacturing and technological priorities.
Each of the developed countries to a certain extent have found their market
niches and has established itself in world export. For example at the
beginning of the 1970's the USA exported 77.5% of world aeroplane
production; 44.1% of organic chemicals; 55.9% of office equipment; 35.2% of
computer technology; 39.3% of industrial refrigeration; 35.8% of grain and
37.1% of steel export etc.. In 1985 Germany accounted for 23.2% of world
automobile export; 19.8% of plastics; 51.5% of rotary printing presses;
32.4% of synthetic organic dies; 34.1% of packaging equipment; 30.4% of
textile and leather processing machinery. In the same years, 1985, Japan
possessed 30.8% of world automobile export; 37.5% of lorries and trucks;
80.7% of televisions and tape recorders; 82% of motorcycles; 62.2% of
cameras and video-cameras; 55.7% of microphones and amplifiers; 37.9% of
peripheral electronic equipment and 31.7% of tankers etc.. It is interesting
that during the same period a number of smaller countries achieved
significant levels of long-term exports. For example Sweden accounted for
41.7% of the world export of paper and boxes; 17.2% of centrifuges; 15.5% of
sulphate cellulose. The Swiss accounted for 45.1% of textile looms; 34% of
wrist watches; 25.3% of synthetic dies and 20.6% of
herbicides.[57]
Another criterion is the state of the available natural resources in a
given country and whether they can exert influence on the power and strength
of countries and their role in the world economy. The freer the exchange of
goods, services and labour the more open countries become to each other. In
this case the power of countries will be determined by their total national
wealth based not only the existing manufacturing facilities but also on the
available natural resources. On the basis of this logic, in September 1995
the World Bank published an analysis of the ecologically sustainable
development and the natural resources of the countries of the world.
Accordance to their classification of the available national wealth per head
of population (table 9) Australia came out in first place followed by
Canada, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Japan.
The USA was quite far down the list in 12th place and Germany in 15th.
Other countries with enormous reserves of natural resources such as Russia,
Brazil, Argentina and others are outside the classification due to their low
levels of existing production facilities and human resources. The
methodology of the World Bank is flawless: resources are of benefit when
there is an adequate material base and human resources. On the other hand,
those countries who do not have such resources will have to pay for them and
to compensate for the inequity with more labour and technology.
Table 9
Classification of the 15 leading countries on the basis of national
wealth
per head of population.
State
Wealth per head of population
Sources of national wealth %
population
capital assets
natural resources
Australia
Canada
Luxemburg
Switzerland
Japan
Sweden
Iceland
Qatar
UAE
Denmark
Norway
USA
France
Kuwait
Germany
835
704
658
647
565
496
486
473
471
463
424
421
413
405
399
21
22
83
78
81
56
23
51
65
76
48
59
77
62
79
7
9
12
19
18
16
16
11
14
17
22
16
17
9
17
71
69
4
3
2
29
61
39
21
7
30
25
7
29
4
Source: World Bank, 1985
These figures show the constant increase in the number of countries
with an established position in the global division of labour. There are at
least 30 countries with a high level of economic potential and another 60 or
70 with the potential to join them in the next 30 or 40 years. Most
significantly, in the current situation no one country can impose a monopoly
on another. The USA, Europe and Japan are inter-dependent on each other.
Their mutual dependence is unilateral and is not only between the three
established economic centres. As a result of structural reforms in the world
economy, there is a whole group of countries aspiring to reach the levels of
the top three and as a result of narrow specialisation and resources they
will soon catch up with them.
Is it then true that economic power will move from the USA and Europe
to Japan? A number of academics seem to believe this. I believe that this is
possible but that it will be a short-term and limited trend. The reason is
that the global market is now strongly influenced by significant market
forces which are capable of balancing out the economic levels of the
country. Only with strong protectionism or as a result of political
cataclysm will one country or another be able to reach a situation of
monopoly or privilege. During the entire period of the 20th century only as
a result of political and military conflicts has one or a group of nations
been able to establish such a position of privilege which has transformed it
into a political force.
This time is over. No-one any longer recognises the legality of
protectionism or uses political arguments in the resolution of ordinary
economic issues. The choice is great and the competition offers better
alternatives. Manufacturers and merchants in the whole world are forcing
their governments to remove prohibitions and limitations. There is a number
of cases where the opposite is true, for example the European agricultural
policies and the limitations on import into Japan. However, no-one can be
convinced of the strategic benefit of such policies. The Fourth Civilisation
offers simultaneously the gradual approximation of economic levels and the
creation of similar, equitable conditions for economic activity and the
mutual conditionality of these two processes. The 20th century opened the
way for this process which is irreversible whatever difficulties the
transition might bring.
Despite the influence of Japanese commercial, manufacturing and
investment expansion and despite the fact that in the 1970's and 1980's
Japan was the most dynamic economic force in the world, I believe it will
not be remain single most powerful leader of the world economy. The economic
dynamics of South Eastern Asia will continue but this will give rise to a
reverse wave of investments to other regions and countries. It is true that
in the last 15 years the USA has lost a part of its share of the world
market and Japan has increased its market share by 15%. The American share
of the heavy machinery market has fallen from 25% to 5% in 30 years while
Japan has increased its share from 0% to 22%[58]. However, even
this cannot convince me that this process will continue to develop
unilaterally and that the Japanese economy will dominate while the American
economy will flounder as this was once predicted by the former director of
the European Bank, Jacques Atalie.
I am writing these lines early in the morning in perhaps one of the
least American and the most Japanese of the United States of the America. I
can see through my window the waking lights of the beautiful capital city
and perhaps one of the most beautiful places in the world. My first
impression is that the atmosphere is mainly Asian and in particular
Japanese. Only the liberal spirit of the USA could allow for the mass
concentration of Japanese, Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese influences in a
single, albeit island, state. It is here that I can understand the arguments
in favour of another type of thinking, that the majority of the older Asian
immigrants as well as the new arrivals consider themselves to be Americans
or at least citizens of the world and that Honolulu has become a bridge
between the USA and Japan and that it is such bridges which create a
balanced market.
Japan and the smaller Asian "dragons" cannot become the masters of the
world. However, they have indisputably destroyed the economic, technological
and financial monopoly of the Atlantic countries of the USA and Europe. They
have created conditions for a completely new distribution of world
manufacturing production and hitherto unknown geo-economic structures. In
the 19th century Britain and France and eventually Germany dominated the
world. During the first half of the 20th century the USA and the USSR caught
up and eventually became the world leaders in a bi-polar world. Between 1960
and 1990 Japan indisputably became a member of the family of the world
economic leaders and this list will continue to grow. There are at least
another 5 or 6 countries in the next 20--30 years which will win significant
economic positions and will find their niches in the world market, balanced
between the old leaders. At the end of the 20th century and clearly at the
beginning of the 21st century the stimulus will continue to come from Asia
-- not only from Japan but also from China where the growth rate at the
beginning of the 1980's deserves admiration, from Australia whose resources
and its "bridge" policies between the USA, Asia and Oceania have given it
tremendous advantages and from Indonesia and the Philippines which are also
making strong progress.
There are good grounds to expect that at the beginning of the 21st
century the more powerful Latin American economies will also begin to move
ahead beginning no doubt with Brazil. If they achieve political stability
and a balanced process of denationalisation then a number of Eastern
European economies will also begin to make progress. Russia with its
colossal, untapped resources will also begin to play a serious role.
I am leading to a statement of my opinion that further economic growth
will of necessity require the removal of economic monopolism. Despite the
ambitions of dictators, selfish politicians and militant ideologues the
globalisation of the world has not lead to the economic domination of one or
two countries or individual governments. At the end of the 20th century
there is also another clear growing trend which will be predominant in the
New Civilisation. I could call this "economic polycentrism" or in other
words, the trend towards the re-distribution of economic power and strength
between a larger number of countries with the gradual involvement of new
ones. It should not be considered that such a trend towards economic
polycentrism will summon in a "glorious future". There is not a single
country (or group of countries) which can independently control global
finance, natural resources or the markets. There is no one country which is
in a condition to force the others to follow it. Directly after the fall of
the Berlin Wall the theory of the "responsibility of the single super power"
become popular. Some people in the USA between 1991--1994 developed this
idea, combined it with the American dream and tried to establish a complete
doctrine on this basis. Fortunately, the majority of American politicians
and the majority of American intellectual elite have realised that this
concept is unreal and have rejected it. During my many meeting with American
politicians and diplomats in the State Department of the USA between
1995--1996 I became growingly aware of the rejection of this idea but also
of the impossibility of this task from the point of view of finances and
resources. The experience of the USSR and the USA during the last 50 years
has shown categorically that to take on the role of a world super power to
defened the sovereignty of the remaining states means to take on an
unsupportable financial burden. The collapse of the USSR and the growing gap
between the USA and Japan are to a large extent due to the burden of
military expenditure.
Polycentrism is at the root of world economic development and at the
root of democracy. It is a counter-trend to the experiences of imperialism
which has dominated world politics for the last 150 years.
4. IS THERE A NEED FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC REGULATION?
If the global economic world is becoming more polycentric is there not
a danger of permanent chaos? Is global economic regulation a way to avoid
it...?
T
he new civilisation which humanity is entering is the antipathy to
imperialism. Instead of the super powers and the great powers of the Third
Civilisation the main trends of the Fourth Civilisation are polycentrism and
the possibility for an increased number of countries and people to
participate fully in the international division of labour. The mutual
dependency of the countries and state leaders make this process sustainable.
To this we should add one more element which was discussed in chapters five
and six, the transfer of a significant portion of the economic power of the
nation state to corporations, companies and individuals or, in other words,
organisations and the civil society. The combination of these two processes
has lead to great changes in global economic structures but has also posed a
number of new questions of principle about world development in general.
During the past four or five hundred years everything seemed to be clear:
all dependended on the state and their monarchs or leaders, later
governments and parliaments. Today things have altered significantly. The
multi-national corporations control the major processes of the global world
and more and more people including political leaders realise that this is
the case. The lack of correspondence between globalisation and the
nationally organised activities of governments could lead the world into
serious new crises as was discussed in chapter three.
If politicians are aware that they are losing their grip over power and
realise that they cannot guarantee their election promises to their
electors, what should they do? The most logical solution would be for the
large international companies to assume national responsibility for all
their activities and to be put under some sort of legal control. This should
also extend to the investments of large sums of money abroad. Such
experiments have been made and will continue to be made. The results are
usually disastrous since they lead to the "closure" of the national economy
depriving it of any possibility to rationalise its manufacturing industry.
If any particular government or parliament imposes limitations upon
companies which are acting within their jurisdiction, then they will simply
leave the country and will find other more accommodating partners and
patrons. Experiments to impose limits on the movement of capital or to
impose direct influence on the management of corporations in modern
conditions is doomed to failure. Such methods are within the arsenal of the
outgoing civilisation.
So there remains another possibility, the creation of an adequate
system of global economic regulation. The aim of this new system is to form
common economic conditions and regulations for the activities of all
economic subjects operating within the global market. I am convinced that
sooner or later such a system of global regulation will become a reality.
History cannot be halted. It is not possible to turn back the trans-national
corporations upon which so much of modern progress relies, nor is it
possible to delay the progress of globalisation which is stimulated by them.
Progress means the establishment of a new world economic order based on
the common global rules of the game. Years perhaps even decades will pass
before such an order is established but even today the need for it is
evident. This is the only guarantee against the threat of a return to
imperialism, the widening of the gap between the poor and the wealthy
nations. One must be aware of two possible misconceptions, firstly, that
there is a need for the creation of a united world government and secondly,
that the role could be fulfilled by the United Nations. Undoubtedly, the
generations which will live through the second half of the 21st century or
later will find some solution to the matter of a world government. Today,
however, this is still a Utopia and not only because it will be derided by
the vast majority of politicians but because nation states have not
exhausted their functions. For this and many other reasons the UN cannot
take on the responsibility of global governmental functions.
Globalisation which is being propelled by the multi-national
corporations and new technology presupposes the gradual development, above
all, of a new world economic order. The quicker this takes place, the sooner
humanity will enter a new, more mature stage of its development.
When after the Second World War the Brenton Woods system was
established, governments bore the complete responsibility for the management
and movement of monetary flow. The medium and long term transfers of capital
were managed by national governments and the international finance and
currency organisations. In these conditions fixed exchange rates played an
important role as a stabilising factor and the International Monetary Fund
complemented the role of the central banks as a reserve fund. This system
functioned for three decades.
The main reason for the end of the Brenton Woods system was that as a
result of the turbulent development of world trade, the majority of
international liquid funds overflowed beyond the limits of the nation
states. This mass of funds increased by such a huge amount that the volume
of international currency speculation began to overtake the volume of trade
in goods. In such a situation the world stock exchanges became a
significantly more influential factor than fixed exchange rates. With the
transition to floating exchange rates the world entered an intermediate
state. The abilities of the national governments to "manage" their economies
independently became significantly hampered. This was a state of "paradise"
for the trans-national corporations and world financial players. The world
has lived with this system now for more than twenty years. I can now
categorically say that this system based on floating exchange rates,
enormous levels of currency speculation and the uncontrollable growth in
government borrowing can last no longer. We are sitting on top of a powder
keg as a result of the huge mass of money which is outside the control of
financial institutions. This system has created privileges for corporations
which possess large amounts of free money and those who exploit the
instability of the system to multiply their billions.
As an antidote to the present international practice of "liberalism" I
propose the logic of balanced development. This requires the creation of a
set of common rules for the movement of monetary flow, compulsory reserves
in the case of investments, stronger controls of "off-shore" zones and the
environmental responsibilities of investors etc.. Such measures will lead to
a reduction in interest rates which in turn will be of benefit to the weaker
nations and will lead to a re-direction of investments into the real sector
of the world economy. I do not know whether there will be enough willingness
or readiness on the part of governments and central banks of the largest
countries to carry out a common global macro-economic policy on the basis of
general agreements and long-term accords. The problems could be resolved by
the financial and governmental leaders of 7--10 countries and given the
current state of the world, the rest would follow.
The other possible solution would be to create a real World Bank which
would guarantee universal conditions for the exchange of currency and a
single global macro-economic policy. Such an idea, if it was supported by a
number of financial experts would have a revolutionary, radical character
and might be able to put a stop to instability. I am not convinced, however,
that at this stage the national governments and the central banks would
agree to such a step, although I, personally, am strongly in favour. The
majority of world financial strategists still hope that the Federal Reserve
System of the USA[59] and the central banks of Germany, Japan and
a number of other countries will be in a position to control the world
currency markets. During the past twenty years this has, more or less, been
the case. When the world financial markets begin to "hit below the belt" the
central banks of the major countries coordinate their activities to
intervene.
There is sufficient evidence to show that this practice is ineffective.
One only has to look back to the collapse of the US dollar against the yen
in 1995. This was a clear enough sign that the restoration of balance is
becoming more and more difficult and the powers of the central banks more
and more inadequate. This process is inseparable from the universal logic of
the collapse of the institutions of the Third Civilisation. First of all,
liberal international economic relations in the last couple of decades have
caused the increase in the strength of the "free" players on the world
financial markets and made their structures infinitely more complicated.
Secondly, the polycentralism of the world economy has brought many more
national currencies into the "turnover" of the world stock exchanges.
Despite the interest of many countries the dollar will no longer be able to
play the role of an international currency.
Consequently, there is little likelihood that the current system will
survive. It will be necessary to begin negotiations on the creation of a new
system of global economic regulation or to develop an entirely new World
Bank with similar regulatory functions. I believe that there will be more
and more support for the issuing of a currency which will be subject to
multi-lateral control and which could be based on the special issuing rights
of the International Monetary Fund or other forms of securities which could
be issued by a new World Bank.
The system of global economic regulation is an inevitable new feature
of the Fourth Civilisation. We shall gradually have to become used to the
idea of accepting universal standards of economic and human activities and
the formation of international courts which will resolve any conflicts which
may arise. These will be above all a series of environmental standards about
which the people of the world are particulary sensitive at the moment.
However, at the same time there will have to be new standards for the
payment of labour, social security and arbitration etc.. It is a shameful
fact that many of the trans-national corporations have moved their
production facilities to less developed nations to avoid pressure in other
countries. Recently a large number of workers in Ecuador appealed to an
American court to request compensation for being poisoned by pesticides
while working for an American company. It is not clear whether the American
court will be able to pass judgement on matters pertaining to foreigners
outside their jurisdiction. However, it is clear that the absence of
acceptable international standards and an adequate international court
system is a precondition for inequality amongst nations. What it cannot do
in the USA, an American registered company may do in Ecuador. There are
innumerable examples of such practice in our modern world of inequality.
One of the main aims of the system of global economic regulation will
be the increase of global savings with a view to the increase in the level
of investments on a world scale. The needs for investments in Asia, Eastern
Europe and Latin America are constantly on the increase. As a result of the
opening-up of the world and after the fall of the Berlin Wall the need for
investments will continue to rise until the end of the 20th century and the
beginning of the 21st. If the levels of savings reduce as they did in the
1980's, this will create extremely serious problems and will hold back world
development.
In general terms the system of global economic regulation is the
mechanism which will limit and will, eventually, put a stop to the processes
of the chaotic development of the world economy. This would provide a
stimulus to the development of many countries creating the opportunity for
the gradual balancing of the economic levels of the countries of the world
assisting in the formation of universal world criteria for economic growth.
Sooner or later this system will become reality. The problem is for people
to become aware of its necessity sooner rather than later.
5. VIVAT EUROPA AND THE DEATH OF THE INTROVERTS
One of the possible scenarios for the future is the division of the
world into regional blocs. Is there a risk that the integration of Europe
and the aspirations of the Europeans to create a common home will lead to
the new division of the world or will globalisation turn the regionally
integrated blocs into marginal powers...?
T
he establishment of the global institutions of the Fourth Civilisation
will take place from the bottom up through a gradual process of the transfer
of the rights of the national governments, legislative and judicial
institutions to international organisations. The best example in the history
of humanity is the unification of Europe: from customs unions, the free
movement of people, capital and knowledge, the creation of a European
parliament, government and court to the decisions to create a common
European monetary union (EMU) and the single currency (EURO). Over a period
of 30 years the builders of the European Union have not only established the
Common Market on the basis of tremendous dedication and created the
foundations for universal citizenship but also created a common feeling of
belonging for all the citizens of the member countries. In answer to the
opinion poll carried out by the "Eurobarometer" in July 1994 "Are you
frightened of or do you believe in the European Market?", 53% believed
strongly or relatively strongly, 35% were afraid or relatively afraid and
12% had no opinion. I mention these statistics here because I want to prove
the most unbelievable fact that only fifty years after the most destructive
war in Europe, former enemies have realised that the borders between them
are of little significance and that the road to progress is not through war
and disputes but via a single market.
There is no need to dwell on the details of European integration. There
are literally hundreds of books written on the subject which say practically
all there is to say. For the needs of my study, the European experience of
integration has a different meaning. If the advocates of integration in
Europe succeed (and they almost have) this will have an exceedingly positive
effect on global processes. The European Union has proved in practice that
the processes of integration are stronger than national prejudices. It is no
accident that the European continent which during the 20th century has
suffered more than any other region of the world has managed to overcome its
divisions and the selfishness of its national interests. Europe has learnt
from its suffering and torment. More than 60 million Europeans died in world
and civil wars in the 20th century alone.
The collapse of the Berlin Wall and the unification of the two halves
of the divided Europe was of particular significance for the pan-European
processes. It posed the question of whether the model of European
integration can be applied in other parts of the world. Would this example
be followed in North and Latin America or Asia? Are the European Union,
NAFTA and the far-Eastern processes of integration comparable? Would the
regional processes of integration push globalisation to one side?
One of the possible scenarios for the future is the division of the
world into regional trade blocs. The European market and currency union, the
North American Free Trade Agreement (a new version based on the old 1960
agreement), The Caribbean Common Market and a new far-Eastern zone for free
trade are trading blocs which could become a basis for conflict. There are a
number of writers, L.Thorou, for example who believe that the 21st century
will be a time of regional trade blocs and their selfish domination of the
world.
There are a number of political concepts based on this. The USA will
distance itself from Europe. Europe will strengthen its borders with the
East to isolate Russia. Military security will coincide with the borders of
the integrated regions etc.. Such ideas are logical only if the intellectual
horizons of the advocates are no further than the ends of their noses.
Regional isolation within the limits of whatever integrated bloc is an
extremely dangerous prospect. It will lead to a chain reaction within the
whole world and the creation of similarly isolated regions within American
and Asia. While there is little likelihood of this taking place within the
new Asian dragons, or the newly confident Latin American economies or
Australia, this prospect does not look too improbable for Europe. The
European syndrome of "protecting one's achievements" and "strengthening of
one's borders" in order not "to let chaos take over" is still alive and in
real danger of being provoked.
Of all the autonomous economic regions in the world at the moment
Europe is one of the most closed. Its internal exchange of trade is
extremely high it providing between 60 and 80% of the imports into the
larger countries of the Union. While as the European economy is strongly
dependent on Asian markets, its investments in Asia have reduced in
comparison to American levels. Europe cannot profit from this "integrational
introversion". It profits from its own integration but is losing as a result
of its introversion and from the lack of sufficient aggression in relation
to other markets. This is further stimulated by the fact that the share of
national ownership in Europe is significantly higher than in other parts of
the world.
At the end of 1995 there was a meeting in Spain of the leading European
industrialists. I was able to talk to one of the major European
industrialists after the conference, the president of the Swiss company ABB,
David de Puri. The European industrialists understand the simple truth that
"openness is at the root of success". They are in favour of the "more rapid
integration of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe into the common
European market" and also that it is up to the "Europeans to re-discover the
open world economy". I quote the opinion of David de Puri not only out of
respect for his undisputed talent as a global leader but also because of the
significance of his views in general. Each regional integration, including
European integration will be successful if it takes into account the laws of
globalisation and if it finds its place within the open global world. There
is no doubt that if the European Union becomes transformed into a more or
less closed community, if it becomes a closed bureaucratic multi-national
state, this will reduce its prospects. As a Bulgarian politician I am firmly
in favour of the acceptance of Bulgaria as a member of the European Union
and I believe Bulgaria to be part of the European cultural tradition.
However, I am not blind. Europe is the richest part of the world, with the
vast majority of historical and cultural archaeological sites and monuments.
However, it is only one part of the world. In the same way as I cannot
accept the term Americanisation, Westernisation or Japanisation, I cannot
accept the term Europeanisation. I would like to be able to shout out, "Long
Live Europe", "The end of European isolation", "The end of European
introversion" -- "Yes, to the open world!"
This brings me to my main conclusion. The regionalisation of the world
is possible and a probably inevitable stage in world integration, of the
transfer of the authority of the nation states to the supra-national
economic and political institutions. Regional integration is typical of the
transition between the Third and the Fourth Civilisation. It was typical of
almost the whole of the 20th century during which alliances between states
began to take on more long term features. After the Second World War they
took on an economic character. On the eve the new century, however, the
regional processes of integration will become more and more subordinate to
global processes. The globalisation of financial, raw material and
information markets will not permit anyone, including the champions of
integration from Europe to close themselves up from everyone else. This will
just be ineffective and of no benefit to anyone.
The Fourth Civilisation will accept the regionally integrated
formations as a intermediate stage in the framework of the polycentric
organisation of the world economic order. For a certain period of time they
will make up for the absence of global economic regulations without being
able to replace it completely. Thus, step by step, stage by stage the
structures and the institutions of the new human civilisation will be
formed.
6. THE BALANCING OF ECONOMIC LEVELS
The balancing of economic levels of countries is also as important as
their opening-up to the world. Each of these processes is impossible without
the other.
G
lobalisation and regionalisation, economic polycentralism and the
openness of countries, trans-national corporations and global economic
regulation, the new global communications and the reduction of the role of
the nation states, the deregulation and socialisation of ownership -- these
features best describe the economic essence of the Fourth Civilisation. This
could also be called global reconstruction or a new economic order or a
number of other titles. Countries are opening up to each other but this
inevitably requires the balancing of economic levels of development. Each of
these categories is impossible without the other at least at the end of the
twentieth century.
Today there are 1 billion rich people in the world, 2 billion people
with medium income and 3 billion poor people. It may be madness to speak of
the balancing of economic levels in such conditions. However, if there is to
be a new economic order based on the criteria of the New Civilisation this
is not impossible. To ignore the problems of poverty and the widening gap
between the poor and the rich countries is not only amoral but ineffective.
If the world continues to be divided into rich metropolises and a poor
periphery this will lead to further isolation. Sooner or later this will
give rise to further serious conflicts and new utopias and a new return to
totalitarian doctrines. Rich countries will not benefit from this.
Rich people do not like to live next door to poor families since they
feel that this will affect them. In the same way in the global village the
rich countries will be faced with more and more problems from the poorer
countries. Earlier in the book I wrote about the problems of realisation of
poverty by the poor and their possible reactions. Now I am writing about the
slow but inevitable process of realisation of poverty on the part of the
rich.
The balancing out of economic levels of countries and nations will be a
slow and drawn-out process. It is a general consequence, a common result of
all the structural and institutional changes which will accompany the advent
of the Fourth Civilisation. The huge level of imbalanced development between
the countries and nations is caused by the disintegrational processes of
isolated development of nations during the past three civilisations.
Different tribes and later national communities developed in the context of
completely new climatic conditions, resources and socio-political context.
It is entirely logical that certain nations should develop further than
others. First of all the Shumerians and the Egyptians, then the Greeks and
the Romans followed by the Chinese and the Indians. By the 15th century
there was already a clear trend towards European domination over the other
countries of the world. It is only now at the end of the 20th century that
this domination could be said to be coming to an end.
What are the differences in the development of the individual countries
of the world now in the 20th century? If we take as our basis the GDP per
head of population we can divide the countries of the world into three
groups, the rich with a GDP per head of population of more then 10,000 USD,
the medium-rich with a GDP of 2-10,000 and the poor with a GDP of less than
2000 USD.
Table 10
Gross Domestic Product per head of population (US
Dollars)[60].
Wealthy countries
Medium wealthy
Poor countries
Switzerland
Luxemburg
Japan
Bermuda
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Denmatk
USA
Iceland
Canada
Germany
France
Austria
UAE
Belgium
Italy
Holland
U.K.
Australia
Brunei
Qatar
Hong Kong
Singapore
Spain
New Zealand
Israel
Bahamas
Ireland
33,515
30,950
26,919
26,600
25,487
24,396
24,151
23,676
22,560
22,362
21,254
21,248
20,603
20,379
20,131
19,295
18,576
18,565
16,748
16,595
16,554
15,484
13,192
12,869
12,461
12,136
12,092
11,708
10,789
Cyprus
Taiwan
Kuwait
Dutch Antibbes
Saudi Arabia
Malta
Bahrain
Barbados
Greece
South Korea
Puerto Rico
Lybia
Portugal
Macao
Estonia
Gabon
Trinidad
Surinam
Latvia
Russia
Belorus
Fm. Yugoslavia
Brasil
Mexico
Uruguay
Argentina
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Hungary
Cuba
Venezuela
Botswana
Malaysia
South Africa
Kazakhstan
Mauritius
Ukraine
Iran
Moldova
Chile
8,641
8,546
8,520
7,300
7,300
7,217
7,075
6,581
6,498
6,356
6,338
5,842
5,626
5,417
3,829
3,777
3,620
3,585
3,418
3,220
3,111
2,956
2,921
2,874
2,860
2,794
2,714
2,711
2,690
2,620
2,614
2,585
2,503
2,474
2,467
2,429
2,336
2,205
2,176
2,163
Ruanda
Vietnam
Malawi
Laos
Burundi
Bangladesh
Madagascar
Zaire
Chad
Cambogja
Afganistan
Nepal
Buthan
Uganda
Ethiopia
Somalia
Tanzania
Mozambique
Sierra Leone
261
227
227
226
216
216
213
213
211
208
199
195
178
177
164
116
100
86
72
All the countries of the first group are inseparably linked to the
world economy. They have open economies and a relatively stable position
within the international distribution of labour. One part of the second
group has the potential of catching up with the first if they are permitted
to participate in the integrational processes and are provided with
sufficient investments. Greece, Portugal, Mexico, China, South Korea,
Hungary and the Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia,
Brazil, Venezuela, Thailand, Malaysia, The Republic of South Africa and even
Kazakhstan have sufficient potential to make serious advances. Table 10
shows a third group of countries whose position is practically hopeless and
whose manufacturing structures are hundreds of years behind that of the most
developed countries.
Of course, the GDP criterion is not exhaustive. It only shows the
actual productivity of the world population. Many countries in the second
group will face problems due to the high costs of servicing their foreign
debts, especially when compared with GNP. Table 11 shows this ratio for 40
countries whose manufacturing industry is not in a position to pay the
rapidly accumulating foreign debts. 15 of them are medium-developed
countries including Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Malta, South Korea and
others. Of course, the foreign debt problem will hamper attempts to reach
the necessary level of economic development.
The paradox of the transition to the Fourth Civilisation is that one
group of countries is already within its embraces, another is standing at
the threshold while a third group is still living within the conditions of
the pre-industrial era. The majority of the population of Tanzania, Kenya,
Mozambique, Nigeria and other countries still live in huts. Large numbers of
children in Somalia, Ethiopia, Ruanda and Congo are dying of starvation.
Given such a situation, are we right to pose the question of the balancing
of economic development? I believe that we are right and that this is the
only way for the New Civilisation to establish itself.
Table 11
Foreign Debt as a percentage of Gross National Product[61]
Syria
Bolivia
Uganda
Oman
Costa Rica
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Bulgaria
Tanzania
Cyprus
Mozambique
Ghana
El Salvador
Kenya
South Korea
Papua New Guineau
Tunisia
Poland
Lebanon
Malta
728,4
426,0
283,4
262,6
250,8
225,3
222,6
221,7
214,7
181,7
167,5
155,9
148,3
142,4
130,2
129,9
118,1
114,5
113,8
109,8
Mauritius
Hungary
Ethiopia
Zaire
Barbados
Zimbabwe
Panama
Sri Lanka
Dominican Rep.
Togo
Gabon
Benine
Jordan
Egypt
Nepal
Nigeria
Uruguay
Laos
Cameroon
Lesotho
109,2
108,8
104,9
95,4
94,8
89,6
88,1
88,1
85,3
85,0
84,6
82,3
81,0
80,0
79,0
77,0
73,6
72,9
72,6
71,5
If the existing world structures and the liberal structures of the
world economy are preserved, the gap between the most develop and the least
developed countries will continue to increase. Only in the last 30 years
this gap measured on the basis GDP per head of population has doubled. If
these policies continue in the future there will be no significant change.
It is true that the economic development of China and the smaller Asian
"dragons" and the expected revival in the economies of Latin America to a
certain extent will fill this vacuum. However, this is not the case for many
countries in Africa or for another fifty or so poorly developed states where
there is little hope .
The pure market approach will not guarantee balanced development for
another reason. 8-10 of the first group of the most developed countries will
for some time to come continue to "rule the world" and to aspire to the role
of an independent economic regulator. I am not saying that the global market
will not impose limits on this trend but the intense competition for
investments in the developed countries will give the poorer countries a
chance and will force investors to take risks. However, this will not be
sufficient. I believe that the decisive factor will the combination of
market trends with global regulation which will stimulate a significant
increase in investments from the wealthier to the poorer nations. Of course,
each of them will have to take additional responsibility for the
establishment of stability, order and the fight against corruption and
crime. For the moment things have been left to the interest of the
multinational groups. With certain notable exceptions this has not
stimulated the improvements to infrastructure in the poorly-developed
countries which they need for further economic development.
The problem of world poverty and in a broader context -- the balancing
out of economic levels will be resolved at a global level. This will be
accomplished by the United Nations, the IMF or the World Bank but above all,
by changes in the world economic order and the creation of institutions of
global economic regulation. Certain statesmen, including the late President
of France, Francois Mitterand, believed in the need for a comprehensive
agreement between the North and the South, between the rich and the poor
states. This was a good if not realistic idea. I believe that it would be
much more effective to develop specific economic programmes for individual
countries aimed at the stimulation and guaranteeing of private investments
via specialised funds and the integration of the poor states in the world
economy. Only about 2% of the global military budget would be sufficient to
carry out such programmes, or about 10-12 billion US dollars. This would
give a powerful impetus to the process of resolving the problems of hunger
and illness, the reduction in the birth rate and the creation of more
sustainable forms of income for specific populations.
The balanced development of the world requires a change in direction
from charity and hand-outs to policies aimed at changing the economic
infrastructure of the least developed nations in the world. It is true that
this will not at all be easy and that the reduction of military budgets does
not mean the sudden release of huge funds for investments. In many cases
these funds will "sink" out of sight as a result of corruption, the lack of
organisation and the desperation of the hungry. However, these are
inevitable difficulties which should not stop the process.
If humanity and especially the wealthiest nations do not take serious
steps to change the trends in the development of the poorest nations, this
will lead to the appearance of new utopias, open the way to religious
fanaticism and confrontation and incite new local, regional and even world
wars. If humanity finds the strength within itself to begin the processes of
resolving this matter this will lead to a change in the face of the earth.
New opportunities will be opened up not only to the people of the poor
countries but to all. What seems impossible and too expensive as an approach
to the struggle against poverty in actual fact will save money in the long
run because future generations will not have to pay the bill. Such are the
laws of the mutually dependent global world.
Chapter Nine
THE CULTURE OF THE FOURTH CIVILISATION
1. THE BEATLES, MICHAEL JACKSON AND
THE BULGARIAN CAVAL
Some of the strongest driving forces of the Fourth Civilisation are the
new global communications. They permit not only the simultaneous
distribution of information products all over the world but also promote
cultural images and standards, universal models and styles. With every
passing day the world is being taken over by a new universal culture.
W
hen I heard the Beatles for the first time in 1966 I was 12 years old.
This was in Sofia at a time when television, radio and the newspapers
divided the world into the "good" (socialism) and the "bad" (capitalism) in
the most terrible and primitive manner. The Beatles came into our small,
closed country via the radio. I remember that first of all, one or two of my
classmates and then almost everyone began to swap information about them --
who they were, where they came from and we began to learn off by heart the
titles and the melodies of their songs. The popularity of the Beatles began
to worry some of those responsible for education in Bulgaria I remember one
day our teacher saying to us, "Even if we like their music, the way in which
they dress and their behaviour is unacceptable".
This fact alone demonstrates that the Beatles were much more than just
music and that they were much more than just another pop-group. From their
appearance in Liverpool and their first concerts in Scotland in 1963,
Germany and Britain the Beatles transformed their music into a world
cultural and social phenomenon. The entire youth of the 1960's and 1970's
took John Lennon, Paul Macartney, George Harrison and Ringo Star to their
hearts.
In 1964 and 1956 the Beatles conquered Europe, North American,
Australia and New Zealand. In 1966, much to surprise of the sceptics, they
took Japan and the Philippines by storm. Their concerts in Tokyo and at the
national stadium in Manilla were no less successful than their concerts in
Europe and America. The sensation was undisputed. It was a new global
phenomenon for which there were no borders or, perhaps, which destroyed the
existing cultural barriers and prejudices. Beatles' records went all around
the world and their songs were sung in Africa, Asia and in Latin America.
The Beatles were a phenomenon of special cultural value. For the first
time a pop-group had achieved such universal global fame. This is, however,
not to underestimate other such famous performers such as Elvis Presley or
Edith Piaf or Caruso. Although each of them was a part of the cultural
treasury of the 20th century, the Beatles phenomenon was an expression of
and the beginning of something entirely new.
The undoubted reason for their success was the talent of the musicians
from Liverpool. However, if they had been born 30 years earlier with even
greater talent they would have not achieved such colossal success. The
Beatles appeared at the moment when the electronic media had just begun a
global revolution. This was not only a matter of electric guitars but the
new means of information transfer and the speed and methods of disseminating
new cultural images. The Beatles were the first swallows of the new era and
heralds of our current civilisation. The process of the globalisation of
world culture began with the Beatles. New musical styles began to appear
within a given country, in a particular town or bar but as a result of the
electronic media they became international and lose their local and national
significance.
The language of music is a language equally understandable in all the
corners of the world. It was logical to expect music to be the main and most
natural channel for the dissemination of universal cultural symbols and
images and that music would be the starting point for the process of
globalisation of culture.
Moreover, together with the dissemination of cultural images created
within one individual state the 1960's were also a time of the intensive
intermixing of cultural styles and the search for points of intersection
between formerly autonomous national and cultural traditions. The Beatles
looked to the cultures of India and Japan for some of their motifs. In the
1970's many African and Latin American musicians gained significant
popularity.
Generally speaking, in culture as in economics there were two types of
phenomena which could no longer be defined as purely national either in
terms of their significance nor in terms of their specific legacy of
cultural traditions. Some symbols appeared in a local context and then
gained global recognition. Other appeared as a result of cultural
intermixing and the creation of cultural models and styles which organically
combined or synthesised individual national cultures.
What national and cultural style is expressed today by the music of
Michael Jackson? The Anglo-Saxon cultural tradition? Hardly. The culture of
black America? Yes, to a certain extent. As he grew more independent and
more creative, his music became more primal separated from local concepts
and traditional criteria of beauty and aesthetics. Michael Jackson's style
and his songs have been influenced by a number of cultures. However, his
primal attraction and personal musical energy are products of a time which
does not recognise national borders and which forms global cultural and
aesthetic standards of beauty and values.
In previous centuries cultural influences were imposed mainly by
coercion and they tended to effect only individual parts of the world. Today
modern global communications and the global media do not only disseminate
the best manifestations of global culture but also require the creative
artists to observe the new cultural criteria and requirements of the new
world art. Anyone who wishes to achieve world fame must be allowed access to
the hearts and souls of people in the different parts of the world. The
Beatles and Michael Jackson, Madonna and Queen as well as many other
musicians have created works of music and artistic influences which owe
their success to a hitherto unknown musical style and to the unique
combination of dynamism and expressivity which knows no national boundaries.
There have been similar phenomena in the other art forms. Television
and video, and advertising have begun to penetrate the whole of world
culture. First of all they penetrate a local culture and then in conjunction
with other less culturally specific products form a part of global culture.
I recently listened to an interview given by the world famous designer
Lacroix in which he was describing his attempts to combine influences from
different cultures, "Intermixing -- this is the essence of things". This is
the essence of the new and it is a logical consequence of the opening-up of
the world and the influence of global communications. The intermixing of
cultural traditions is an expression of the same synthesis which is now
apparent in global economics.
It was his death from AIDS which elevated Freddy Mercury to a status
perhaps greater than he was in life. However, Queen's music was not purely
English or European but a more universal music of the future world as an
integrated community. Who does the music of Jean Michel Jarre belong to? It
has nothing in common with the powerful tradition of the chanson. The music
of Jean Michel Jarre is a product of the electronic society not only in
terms of technology but in terms of its historical significance and the
beginning of the new age. The main result of this process is the formation
of a universal spiritual and cultural content of the world. This is above
all manifested in the appearance of a growing number of cultural products
which have no national borders and limits. Music was the first of these but
now similar processes are taking place in the cinema, fashion and art
resulting in the appearance of millions of new bonds between the people of
the whole world.
I live in a country with rich and ancient cultural traditions. I am
saddened by the destruction of traditional culture which has been taking
place since 1992. However, I am encouraged by certain new and important
phenomena -- the combination of the global culture with national traditions
on the one hand and the adaptation of national traditions to global trends.
Few people would recognise the Bulgarian folk instrument, the Caval. There
are similar looking wind instruments in other countries of the world, but
the Bulgarian Caval in terms of its construction and sound is unique.
Theodosi Spasov has used it to win many significant international awards and
has conquered the hearts of many people. His performances have little in
common with the traditions of the Bulgarian Caval. His improvisations are
filled with the spirit of the new and his compositions are a symbol of
modern musical philosophy. For this reason he is understandable anywhere.
There is no chronological distinction between his art and that of the
greatest modern composers.
This is only one example. Many others could be drawn from the various
areas of art. Most significantly even the smallest of world cultures can
produce global culture. All they need to do is to find the link between
their own identity and the universal global cultural processes. Between
1984--1995 the famous Bulgarian folk-singer Stefka Subotinova recorded a
number of Bulgarian folk songs with a modern arrangement which achieved
enormous popularity. Other famous Bulgarian pop singers such as Lili Ivanova
and Georgi Hristov also combine Bulgarian and global cultural elements.
There are similar processes at work all over the world.
The most important conclusion which I draw here is that after the
1960's together with the appearance and the spread of new global
communications and the media there also began a new process of the
globalisation of world culture or in other words, the creation of a culture
with a supra-national character. This culture created global criteria and
values, overcame national, cultural and religious prejudices and is
undoubtedly an element of the coming Fourth Civilisation which the 21st
century will bring us. This culture is creating the future. It is a bridge
to it and a bridge to the unification of new generations from all over the
world.
This new culture became possible as a result of the mass influence and
cultural mixing born by the world media. Satellite television made possible
the removal of borders without tanks and violence without the dissemination
of militant ideology and doctrines. The world is united with new
communication networks -- a process which will clearly continue with growing
intensity into the coming century. This is the greatest guarantee for the
continued globalisation of world culture. A shining example of this is the
creation of television networks which cover the entire globe. It can be
easily predicted that such global television networks will continue to
penetrate all the corners of the earth. Part of them will carry information,
some of them will broadcast art, while other will show sports. However, they
will all be the most powerful integrational factor in the world.
While the collapse of the Eastern European totalitarian systems was a
political revolution, the first part of the collapse of the Third
Civilisation, the new communications will be the material manifestation of
the new age. Microchips, computers and satellite televisions spell death for
bureaucracy, partocracy and the restrictions of human rights. The Beatles,
Freddy Mercury, Jean Michel Jarre and Theodosi Spasov are all directly
linked. They are but different manifestations of one and the same global
phenomenon, the globalisation of art and new cultural dimensions which will
combine the strongest national traditions with a new, hitherto unknown
global culture which will belong to no one single nation.
Will national traditions and cultures disappear? Will cultural
differences not become a reason for the new division of the world? Is not
global culture a covert form of media dictatorship? These questions will be
answered later.
2. THE TRAVELLING PEOPLES
Until only fifty years the majority of people travelled only to the
neighbouring town or village and foreign travel was a privilege of only a
select few. Each subsequent generation bears within itself the spirit of the
global world. Today millions and billions of people travel around the world.
Travel has become a bridge over which the peoples of the world can get to
know one another and exchange their cultures.
T
he globalisation of world culture has lead to a particular form of
cosmopolitanism which has flourished as a result of new technologies and
communication. Cosmopolitanism, however, is not characteristic of all
countries and peoples nor is there any direct link between cosmopolitanism
and the level of technological and economic progress which a given country
has achieved. Switzerland is one of the most advanced countries in the
world. However, they are more conservative than cosmopolitan. They
acknowledge and service the cosmopolitanism of others without accepting it
for themselves. Everything depends from an historical point of view on the
development of a given nation, its openness to the world and at the same
time its ability to preserve its integrity. Many peoples exiled from their
native lands over the centuries have dissolved into foreign ethnic groups or
have been simple either enslaved or annihilated. Therefore the decisive
factors are not only national openness and mobility but also loyalty to one
roots.
Those nations in history which were the first to master new forms of
communication were able to spread their culture to other states. I like to
refer to these nations as the "travelling nations". In this process they
achieved significant historical advantages and became leaders in the
processes of integration. The modern world is now dependent on those
"travelling nations". Joel Kotkin calls them the "global tribes". For Kotkin
these global tribes combine a strong feeling of loyalty to their family
roots, observe the principles of national fidelity and despite being spread
all over the world identify with one specific geographical area. According
to my analyses these global nations are not only a continuation of an
historical tradition but are, above all, a powerful integrating element of
the modern world. In the same way that the ancient Greeks spread their
culture to Scythia and Rome, today the global nations are amongst the most
effective bridges for the dissemination of capital, technology and culture.
Each of these peoples left their native land and later established positions
of strength in dozens of other countries and created an invisible network of
families, relatives or national ties or channels for the dissemination of
economic and cultural values. A typical feature of these "travelling
nations" is their facility to become naturalised successfully in different
countries amongst varying ethnic groups at the same time preserving their
national roots and traditions. There are several reasons for this: the
absence of a homeland state; colonisation of cultivable lands; migration as
a result of wars and natural catastrophes; political, ideological and
religious conflicts. These are the most common reasons which instill the
spirit of the pioneer and traveller.
The Jewish people are a typical example of this. The modern world
economy and world corporations were founded by Jews. Expelled as a result of
persecution and the lack of their own homeland, as early as the 18th century
the Jewish people began their own processes of economic integration. At the
time when everything functioned within narrow national borders, the Jews
exploited the differences between national manufacturing conditions and
today it is no accident that their representatives are amongst the richest
people in the world. The religious prohibition against Christians lending
money with interest allowed them to master the secrets of banking. The lack
of their own state institutions and land made them into the best traders in
the world. Perhaps their greatest strength was the close network of
connections and their efforts to preserve the traditions of the old Jewish
families.
Today the Jews, the oldest travellers, are not alone. One might go so
far as to say that their trans-national monopoly has been taken from them.
There is another group of peoples who are keenly following the achievements
of world communications and are gradually catching up with, and in certain
cases overtaking, the achievements of the Jews. The British, the Armenians,
the Chinese, the Indians and more recently the Americans and Japanese are
gradually becoming global nations or in other words, people who are links in
a complex chain spanning the world with millions and millions of other
links.
Many of these global peoples have specialised themselves in significant
parts of world manufacturing and trade. For example the Jews from generation
to generation have expanded their influence in the entertainment industry,
the world of finance and the diamond trade. The Japanese are the world
leaders in precise engineering, in the production of high powered computers
and computer technology. The Indians are amongst the world leaders in
software, the British in banking and communications, the Americans in
telecommunications, aerospace engineering and the Chinese in textile
manufacture etc..
Perhaps, the most important factor is while preserving their relative
specialisation and making their own contributions to the global cultural
treasury, these travelling nations have helped greatly in the removal of
borders between the nations of the world. Thanks to them the world today is
closely integrated and the intermixing of their cultures has reached
tremendous levels. The global world would be impossible without these
"travelling peoples".
The preservation of national cultural traditions and tolerance to other
cultures has allowed them to become some of the leading architects of the
new world. At the opposite extreme those who are isolated and intolerant to
other cultures have no chance. They will either remain at the tail-end of
world progress or they will incite conflicts which will have serious
consequences for themselves. The totalitarian regimes were typical examples
of this. Totalitarianism can flourish only in isolation. The Russians,
Czechs, Bulgarians and Poles were isolated from progress and the new
technological revolution which embraced the world in the 1960's. Today they
are having to redouble their efforts to make up for lost time.
On the other hand, there is the example of the eternal Jews. They have
occupied key positions in the economic, cultural and political life of
France, Russia, the United States and the Republic of South Africa. Members
of the same families can be found in London, Paris, New York, Capetown and
even Hong Kong. It is these families and clans which have been the major
channels for the explosion in world trade over the past 30--40 years.
Another similar example is that of the Indians who apart from operating
within their own country exert strong influences in London, Los Angeles,
Chicago or Lagos. If you visit Nairobi the capital of Kenya, you will be
amazed to see how many Indians there are in the financial and commercial
sectors. As a result of their powerful navy and great colonial empire in the
19th century, the British have very strong global positions. The influence
of the British financial networks is particulary strong in Sidney,
Singapore, Toronto or San Francisco.
The majority of the travelling nations became established in the 19th
century and the first half of the 20th. They opened the way for the
globalisation of the world. They not only gave birth to this process they
were also its children. Today the "old travellers" are accompanied by new
"travelling nations" who are more dynamic and will perhaps make up for what
they missed out on.
One of the newest travelling nations are the Japanese. They have the
biggest banks in the world, the most progressive world technologies and
their own "settlements" within all the world economic and cultural centres.
I would say that from the 1960's onwards the Japanese have spread all over
the world. Some people consider that this is a planned invasion with a view
to conquering new economic influence and living space. Others say the
opposite, that the Japanese economy is like a balloon which if it is to
avoid bursting needs first to be deflated.
I do not believe that from an historical point of view any one given
nation can dominate the rest and by the same token I do not believe that
international Japanese invasion has reached its apogee. The Chinese and the
Indians will have a hard job to try and take their place. At least until the
beginning of the next century the Japanese global diaspora will continue to
exert a strong influence on the formation and development of the whole
world. The strong Japanese influence on the American economy, their
penetration into European economic structures and their strong overtures to
Latin America and some African countries demonstrate that the Japanese will
continue to be one of the leading travelling nations. Only one example is
sufficient. Each year the Japanese economy invests huge amounts of free
capital into real estate in the USA and Europe. According to some analysts
almost 40% of the property in the centre of Los Angeles in Japanese. The
same can be said of the huge skyscrapers in New York. There are thousands of
Japanese enterprises in the USA some of which occupy leading positions in
technology. One of the most prestigious world resorts, the Hawaiian islands
are owned to a large extent by the Japanese. If you walk along the coastal
boulevard at Waikiki beach you are more likely to hear Japanese than any
other language and you will see that the majority of the marvellous hotels
by the beach are Japanese. What the Japanese were unable to achieve with
their attacks and their bombs against Pearl Harbour they have achieved by
hard work, money and consistency. Today only a few kilometres from the place
where in December 1941 Japanese bombers inflicted their most serious blow
against the American Pacific Fleet there is a chain of luxury Japanese
hotels.
The Japanese have two amazing features. They have a tremendous ability
to adapt and to achieve progress quietly and consistently. Take a look at
the streets of any of the world's large cultural, financial or tourist
centre. Practically everywhere you will see Japanese tourists taking
photographs, taking notes and they are always in little groups. They are
soaking everything up. They will later analyze the information they have
taken away with them and then they will come back, this time with
investments and specific ideas for entering the market, quietly, slowly and
unnoticed.
The other new global travellers who can be seen everywhere are the
Chinese. According to some statistics, the Chinese who live outside the
border of China control the larger part of the hard currency reserves of the
world. There are "Chinatowns" in Los Angeles and San Francisco, Toronto and
New York. They are becoming more and more influential and add their own
colour and new cultural phenomena to the countries in which they live. There
is a growing Chinese influence in Japan and Australia. Clearly the reform
government of China is trying to emulate the experience of Japan to create
conditions for new world domination on the basis of traditional Chinese
domination. If the current rate of Chinese economic growth persists to the
end of the century and the hard currency reserves of the Chinese living
outside China continue to increase then within 10--15 years they will become
the most dynamic "travelling nation" in the global world. With new
simplified procedures, an ethnic economy, strong national links, extreme
hard work and consistency -- these are the characteristics which guarantee
great chances of success for the Chinese. The Indians and the South Koreans
whose economic elite are becoming more and more self-confident will also
direct their attention to a similar global approach. It can be expected that
the Asian economies will not only experience an ardent renaissance but that
their development will have a colossal global effect. The example of South
Korea and a number of smaller Asian states is indicative that it is not
necessarily only the larger peoples which become "travellers" and take on a
global significance. Perhaps their example will be infectious.
The collapse of the bi-polar model and the destruction of the Berlin
Wall gave the Eastern Europeans a chance to discover the advantages of the
open world. Very soon after 1990--1991 the Slavs and in particular the
Russians began to re-settle all over the world. Although it is too early to
make any sort of conclusion, the Russians seem to be turning into one of the
new "travelling nations". The large export of capital (according to the
Russian official figures -- over 40 billion dollars between 1991--1994) and
the creation of a Russian suburb in New York, the purchase of real estate in
London, Paris and Madrid, these are all features of the new, long-term
Russian presence in the global world.
When I speak of the "travelling nations" I am not emphasising the
leaders of this group. I mean the general trend towards the re-settlement of
people, people travelling for the purposes of business or leisure. People
are no longer restricted to their own states as they once were. They do not
only travel to neighbouring countries. Younger generations are losing their
feelings of loyalty to the country in which they were born and are more
capable of living anywhere where there is a chance of good work and decent
living conditions. For the past 20 years the number of people travelling by
air has constantly been on the increase. The forecasts for the year 2010 are
particularly significant.
Table 12
The number of people travelling on international airlines
(millions)
Year
Passengers
1986
318
2000
485
2005
624
2010
789
Source: The World in 1995. L.,1995.
As can be seen from table 12, for the next 15 years the number of those
travelling on international airlines will double. If we also add the number
of people travelling by other means of transport we will see that more than
one third of the world's population travels to different parts of the world.
Most of the travellers are from the industrialised countries and there is a
logical trend arising, the greater the material progress of a given nation
the more they are inclined to travel.
The "travelling nations" are uniting the world in an inimitable manner.
Their families and ethnic and cultural connections, their national
affiliations unite countries and continents, frequently in spite of official
government policies. They are the bearers of globalisation and it is no
accident that they produce the vast majority of the representatives of
global culture.
Only those nations which can adapt to the conditions of new world
communications will be able to survive and to dominate the world
intellectually and economically. The Jews, the British, the Americans, the
Japanese and Chinese are the leading nations in the processes of
globalisation. They are immediately followed by the Indians and Armenians
who in their own way and in different scales have attempted to establish
their own networks. The Armenians are fewer in number but very closely knit
while the Indians are motivated by their desire to catch up with the rest of
the world. It should, however, be noted that very soon the benefits which
can be gained by "travelling" will be discovered by others. There is a great
likelihood that the Russians, Brazilians, Mexicans, Nigerians and South
Koreans will follow in the footsteps of the other "travelling nations".
Some people say that the time of ethnic groups has arrived, I
personally believe that now is the turn of the "travellers".
3. MAN WITHOUT ETHNIC ORIGIN OR THE REBELLION OF ETHNICITY
No-one can say how many people of mixed blood live on the earth. No-one
can say how many mixed marriages there are, but one fact is certain -- that
they are on the increase. There are hundreds of millions of people who by
blood or by spirit do not belong to one nation or group of people. They are
simply citizens of the world or a part of the New Civilisation.
T
he demographic statistics of the UN show that about one third of the
modern world population is of mixed ethnic origin. This may include the
majority of the population of multinational countries, the children of mixed
international marriages and so on. I am convinced that all the figures which
have been collated in relation to this question are relative simply because
of the different types of methodology used and the lack of precise
statistics. There is one significant element: the more globalised the world
becomes the more people will become the bearers of multicultural traditions.
This is another demographic aspect of globalisation and global culture.
While the "travelling nations" stimulate the processes of opening-up, the
children of international marriages are the truest expression of the new
civilisation. It is not important where a person is born and what passport
he possesses. Even if a person is defined as an American, although he is of
Italian-Irish or Russian descent or even if he is Tatar-Ukrainian, this is
not the most important. What is most important is that there is an
increasing number of people in the world who on the basis of their
behaviour, their lifestyle and their value systems demonstrate the
characteristics of the multicultural society and the intermixing of
different traditions and customs.
There is a growing number of people all over the world who are becoming
aware of their global belonging and regard their specific citizenship as a
relative and distant concept. The daily life of these people bears little
resemblance to that of their mothers and their fathers. They may have come
from India, Egypt, Zimbabwe or Thailand but they dress like Europeans, live
in apartments with simple modern furniture and eat international cuisine.
Their ethnic origins might be expressed only through certain national
dishes, items used to furnish their homes or the celebration of certain
national feast days.
With the intermixing of trade and communications and national cultures,
man himself is changing. Little by little day by day he is becoming a
citizen of the world. Born of a European mother and a Latin American father
he might wake up in an apartment in New York, watch the world news on the
BBC and go to work in a Japanese company. He might lunch in a Chinese
restaurant and then go to Russia on business. This Mr.X might have a house
which is furnished with items "made in the world", he might have a Polish
wife and his children might be learning Italian. There are innumerable
examples of this. They are the signs of an emerging, unclassified phenomenon
-- the appearance of a universal human culture and common global awareness.
The main centres of this intermixing used to be in university cities,
tourist areas or companies with employees from many countries of the world.
Today these processes of drastic change are taking place all over the world.
There are certain exceptions, where the women of a certain country are not
allowed to marry foreigners or to have children by them. The Palestinians,
for example, do this for reasons of national survival. When the Jordanians
require the children of mixed marriages to take Jordanian citizenship this
is mainly for religious reasons.
The ethnic and the cultural intermixing of the world is a slow and
evolutionary process. It can be seen in cultural adaptation, the use of one
and the same language and the intermixing of lifestyles and cuisine etc..
Let us take for example language learning. As can be seen from table 13, at
the moment there are 12 major languages in the world. In total there are
between 4000 and 10,000 spoken languages and between 20--50,000 dialects.
There is an undisputed trend towards the gradual disappearance of a large
number of dialects and languages. The process of cultural intermixing also
is taking place in languages. On the one hand this is a sign of the trend
towards the use of a single or small number of languages as a global
lingua-franca. To a great extent this is the role of English. On the other
hand there are a large group of local languages which thanks to the
electronic media will survive and will play a significant role in the
survival of the culture of certain nations. At the moment more than 1
billion people in the world use English as an international language. This
is due to the fact that the English speaking group is the second largest
group of people in the world (table 13) as well as the fact that it has been
the English-speaking countries which have provided the main stimuli for
progress and that the world media broadcast in English. English is
undoubtedly the major language in North America, one of the major languages
in Europe and is used widely in Japan, India and Latin America as an
international language.
Globalisation will require sooner or later one of the world languages
to become a global language. It is very likely that this English will fulfil
this role. This is because the most active processes of globalisation during
the last 50 years have come about as a result of the domination of the USA
in the world economy. It is possible, however, that in the processes of
economic polycentralisation English will lose part of its domination to
French or German or one of the eastern languages such as Chinese or
Japanese.
Whatever the outcome I believe that the future of culture and language
lies in a combination of global language and culture, national cultures and
languages and the unsustainable cultures and languages of the smaller
nations. There are notably over 2 billion people in the world, mainly in the
poorer countries who do not speak any of the 12 major languages of the
world.
Table 13
The major languages of the world.
Chinese More than 1 billion China, Taiwan, Singapore
English 300-400 million people United Kingdom, USA, Canada, Ireland,
India, Nigeria, Australis, South Africa
(official language of 87 nations and
territories)
Hindi 250-300 million North Africa, Trinidad, South Africa,
Mauritius
Arabic 165 million North Africa, Near East
Russian 250-300 million Republics of the Former Soviet Union
Malay 180 million Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei
Bengali 150 million Bangladesh, India
Spanish 180-520 million Official language of 20 nations and
territories in Europe and America
French 100-150 million Official language in 37 countries and
territories in Europe, Africa, America
and Oceania
Japanese 125 million Japan, minorities in USA and Brasil
German 150 million Germany, Switzerland, Luxemburg,
Lichtenstein, Austria and Belgium
Urdu 50-90 million Pakistan.
Source: the Universal Almanac 1996 ed. J.Wright, Kansas City, 1995.
It is still unclear which of them will preserve their languages and
which of them will fall under the influence of the stronger cultures.
Neither one extreme, the disappearance of ethnicities within a global
culture, nor the other, their isolation and conservation is capable of
answering the needs of humanity. It has already been mentioned that the
explosion of ethnic groups is more or less an attempt at self-defence and a
consequence of aggression against smaller cultures and nations. If
migration, mixed marriages and the world media stimulate the intermixing of
culture, then education and concern for the smaller cultures is a compulsory
precondition for the preservation of local traditions and universal harmony.
The Fourth Civilisation will be an era of global cultural phenomena but also
the preservation of all the smaller cultures which express the diversity of
the human species. This process cannot be stopped and there is little doubt
that there will be an increase in the number of people who will lose their
"pure" ethnicity but this will not lead inevitably to the destruction of
national traditions and features. There have been periods throughout the
history of humanity when the mixing of blood for many nations was considered
shameful. Many nations aspired to preserve the purity of their roots and
people through the purity of their blood. The formation of nations and
nation states coincided logically with this process.
The New Civilisation places the emphasis on the moral aspect of the
common human spirit, the search for the common elements between autonomous
cultures and peoples. Only in this way can the new dimensions of technical
and spiritual progress be combined with tolerance, mutual influence and
unification of difference cultures. The other alternative is isolationism
and conflicts between civilisations and religions. Whether the 21st century
will be a century of wars between cultures and civilisations as S.Huntington
seems to believe or a century which places the priority on the universal and
humanitarian elements of development -- this is a question of choice between
the past and the future.
4. GLOBAL AWARENESS
The 19th and the 20th centuries were a time of mass ideology. Global
awareness rejects the closed ideologies of confrontation. It is a reflection
of the common elements which unite the inhabitants of the earth but also of
the differences between us and our neighbours. Global awareness is the main
driving force of the Fourth Civilisation. It is the sense of the
compatibility and legitimisation of these differences.
H
umanity is constantly adapting itself to the common spiritual values of
integration. The integration of manufacturing and communications has lead to
a growing awareness of the common problems of people and the ways in which
they can be resolved.
Religions are a typical expression of this unified awareness. Sometimes
they are imposed through methods of conviction more frequently by violence
and coercion. Religious conflicts over the past 2 millennia have been
struggles between spiritual values and the different systems and structures
of human awareness. Homo Sapiens in his evolution from the apes inherited
and developed this common awareness. Over the centuries group ideologies
became more and more massive. General or mass awareness is reflected in the
common features and standards of life, in common gods and religions and in
common spiritual values.
The industrial age from the end of the 18th century saw a new period of
structuring of mass values. The unifying nature of existing dogmatic
religions was gradually replaced by unifying ideologies. Liberalism,
Marxism, Leninism, nationalism, fascism and Maoism are just some examples.
Certain ideologies reject religious awareness, others try to adapt it to
their value systems. Until the 19th century violence was the basic, albeit
limited, means for the solution of all conflicts between peoples, cultures
and ideologies. Mass ideologies gave rise to mass violence. The most radical
religious ideologies of the 20th century were undoubtedly communism and
fascism. Although they were essential different and had different economic
bases they both used violence as a key political method. Zbignew Brzezinski
was correct when he referred to such ideologies as "coercive utopias". Such
ideological religions allow for only one truth and exalt one system as the
true system. They share the same eternal ideas and the same laws of human
society. This is not only an expression of the primitivism of Utopia or
subjective illusions imposed through coercion but a definite stage in the
development of humanity. Ideological religions are an expression of the mass
awareness which is caused by violent and radical integration, by the
coercive persecution of the rural population and their transformation into
industrial workers, the exploitation of hired labour, the violent
colonisation of hundreds of nations and billions of people. Mass ideologies
are the result of violence but also carry its seeds.
H